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© 1995 - 2008
James Ogley

All views expressed on this site are my own. They do not necessarily reflect those of the Parish of Bursledon, the Diocese of Winchester or the Church of England. As such, I do not expect them all to be popular but you, the reader, can certainly expect them to be honest.

Seven days until voters go to the polls in the US (those that haven't voted early or by post of course) and I have to say that the electoral map at the moment just looks bonkers. [Link to the map as the polls have it today]

The GOP are having to campaign in Montana of all places (because they desperately need those three electoral college votes), North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Indiana are trending Obama and North Dakota is a statistical tie right now. Even Georgia could conceivably send 15 electoral votes to Obama.

Other states that went for Bush and are possibly/likely to go for Obama include Ohio, Virgina, Nevada, Iowa and New Mexico with Missouri another statistical tie.

My fear right now is complacency on the part of Democrats causing lower turnout among their ranks narrowing the margin enough in some key swing states. There are just too many states that are close - if not knife-edged - for my liking and the 100+ Electoral College majority I've been saying for a long time that Obama will have may dissipate.

In the Senate, the likelihood is that the Democrats will wind up with 58 or 59 Senators. It is possible though that Mississippi and even Georgia may return Democratic Senators giving the Democrats the magic number of 60 even if AL Franken fails to take Minnesota. Again, I'm not holding my breath though.