270 to win.
A few hours until the polls close in the East and it's looking like the turnout is going to be huge. I'll be updating this post over the course of the night and here's a list of sites/channels I'm monitoring (again updated if I add more):
- BBC News
- Electoral-Vote.com
- CNN
- C-SPAN
- Associated Press (in association with C-SPAN)
- Reuters
03:05: Okay, I'm heading to bed. The presidential race is basically decided and I expect to wake up in four hours or so to the news that McCain has conceded. Obama will take WA; OR; CA; HI. He'll probably take FL and possibly at least one of NC, VA and NV too.
03:01: CNN calls IA for Obama and UT and KS for McCain.
02:53: The BBC report that OH Republicans have conceded the state.
02:52: CNN calls NM for Obama. IA is also among the states closing at 03:00.
02:45: I'm going to stay here until the next set of states close - that's just NV, UT and MT I think - to catch if any of those are projected off the bat and then I'll head to bed. I'm confident in an Obama victory now and I still think it could be around 100 electoral votes. Hopefully FL will be called before I head to bed too. If you're reading this and you're in a state where the polls are still open - still go vote!
02:40: With OH going for Obama, he now just needs to hold on to the states that Kerry won that have yet to be called/projected - that's WA; OR; CA; HI. Hard to see McCain winning even in his wildest dreams now.
02:34: CNN and the BBC are reporting OH for Obama.
02:24: CNN are projecting WV for McCain. They're also promising a major projection right after these messages...
02:19: The BBC are reporting that Fox (FOX!) have called Ohio for Obama and Larry Sabato (Uni. Virginia) suggests that that's the end for McCain. Only 5% of precincts have reported so far though.
02:11: Whoops, I'd added 10 electoral votes to Obama's tally. Nevertheless, he needs 95 more now and that means if FL goes for Obama he needs no more red states to flip. Expect more to flip though. GA has been called for McCain by CNN.
02:05: Senate pickups in NH and NM for the Democrats according to CNN.
02:02: CNN calls the following for Obama: RI; MI; MN; NY. They call the following for McCain: WY; ND; AL. CNN are being as cautious as possible in calling states especially after the last two presidential elections.
01:54: CNN are projecting a Senate pickup for the Democrats in NC.
01:52: Less than 10 minutes until NY, MI, WI, TX and MN close, along with ten other states.
01:41: CNN just also called PA for Obama. I've just been doing some quick mental arithmetic. FL looks like it could well go for Obama. Add that to the almost guaranteed NY and CA gives a further 113 votes to Obama making 236. MI's 17 votes are likely to stay blue making 253 which would only need OH then to flip (or all the other blue states from 2004 to go for Obama). CNN have just been talking about how soon it might be that McCain comes out and concedes.
01:34: With Reuters calling PA for Obama, I'm adding it to my tally.
01:30: CNN are calling NH for Obama. C-SPAN calling IL for Obama.
01:28: The BBC are projecting IL for Obama as is the CNN website (although CNN have yet to add it to their tally).
01:24: Seems the PA projection comes from Reuters. Justin Webb suggests that if it's true then the whole thing might be wrapped up early. He could well be right - especially if FL goes for Obama as it seems it might. Expect IL to be called soon.
01:17: The BBC are projecting PA for Obama. No-one else seems to be that I'm tracking although the BBC must get their numbers from somewhere reputable. They are also reporting a Democrat Senate pickup in NH.
01:05: CNN also has Obama ahead in NC but with the reminder that it's very early in the count there. VA still looking good for McCain.
01:04: Electoral-vote.com suggests FL and NC could be going Obama. CNN has Obama 10% ahead in FL.
01:02: CNN calls the following states for Obama: MA; IL; CT; NJ; ME; DE; MD; DC. They call these for McCain: TN; OK.
00:58: 15 states and DC close in 2 minutes.
00:57: CNN also reports SC for McCain.
00:54: BBC reports SC for McCain.
00:44: Electoral-vote.com now has its results map up. At the moment it's predominantly empty but watch it fill up overnight.
00:31: CNN now reporting Obama ahead in FL but the numbers look weird. Also McCain looking ahead in VA.
00:29: CNN: IN very close (as reported earlier) with the Democratic strong areas still yet to report. Could IN go Blue?
00:25: Five minutes to three more states closing their polls.
00:20: Polls still open in FL but CNN reporting it as currently 54/46 for McCain. This is significantly at odds with the latest polling.
00:18: CNN/C-SPAN showing IN as being really close.
00:06: CNN are reporting a Democrat Senate pickup in VA.
00:04: CNN and the BBC reporting VT for Obama.
00:03: C-SPAN is reporting a Democrat Senate pickup in KY.
00:01: CNN and BBC reporting KY for McCain.
23:59: Exit poll data from the BBC says that 69% of people asked in Virginia think McCain unfairly attacked Obama, 46% the other way round.
23:54: Coming up polls closing in six states in the East with McCain leading by 2,200 votes or so based on the handful of counties that have already announced in IN and KY, two states that were massively red four years ago (C-SPAN/AP).
23:04: Within the last five minutes, the first polls closed in some counties of Indiana and Kentucky.
22:52: Within the last hour, "robo-calls" from the McCain-Palin camp have gone to Cuban-Americans in FL aledging that Fidel Castro prefers Obama.
22:41: CNN Exits: 72% of first-time voters voted for Obama.
22:20: CNN: Palin described today's election as "An historical event." Moron. It's an historic event - it didn't happen 200 years ago!
22:17: People concerned with the Iraq war voted 63% for Obama in the US as a whole according to CNN's exit polls.
22:10: BBC: The Dow has closed up 300 points - its biggest ever election day rally.
22:08: CNN: 3 hour queues to vote at the University of Florida. Polls are supposed to close in FL in 2 hours time. You do the math.
22:05: CNN exit polling coming in, the economy is the biggest issue for voters - 62% say it's their top priority. Iraq was second.
22:00: One hour until the first polls close but CNN's exit polls are about to be announced...
21:36: Gerrard just equalised for Liverpool deep into injury time. This has nothing to do with the election but I really couldn't be bothered to post another entry for it.
21:16: Courtesy of Electoral-Vote.com, 2 years ago, a hypothetical McCain-Obama poll gave Obama 28 Electoral College votes. That's IL, HI and DC. IL the state he represents in the Senate, HI his birth state and DC that went 90% for Kerry in 2004.
21:14: CNN - Record turnout reported at polling places
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